SHFE Tin Prices Under Dual Pressure from Macro Sentiment and Weak Fundamentals, Tin Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes September 22, 2025

Last week, the domestic and overseas tin market overall showed a pattern of fluctuating at highs. Macro perspective, US August non-farm payrolls data came in significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, strengthening market expectations for a US Fed September interest rate cut. A weaker US dollar provided some support to commodity prices. However, Trump's announcement that he would "soon" impose tariffs on semiconductor imports sparked concerns about the stability of the global semiconductor industry chain, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Supply and demand fundamentals, supply side, affected by Myanmar's rainy season and delayed production resumptions, domestic tin concentrate imports continued to contract. Smelters in Yunnan maintained low operating rates due to tight raw material inventory, and planned concentrated maintenance in September further suppressed supply release. Demand side, performance was weak due to the traditional off-season in the electronics industry and a post-PV installation rush order decline. Although demand in the semiconductor sector saw a slight recovery, downstream purchasing remained primarily for rigid needs. Short-term, SHFE tin prices are under dual pressure from macro sentiment and weak fundamentals. If the US dollar index continues to strengthen and downstream restocking demand shows no improvement, prices may further test the support level of 268,000 yuan/mt. For LME tin, the effectiveness of the $34,000 threshold needs attention. The pace of Myanmar's production resumptions and the recovery rhythm of the semiconductor industry will become key variables for subsequent directional choices. Investors need to closely monitor macro data guidance and fund flows.